By Brody Burns, Editor-in-Chief
Don’t blink. Canada just officially did it in 78 days. This past year, the United Kingdom had theirs wrapped up, from start to finish, in an impressive 37 days. The law in Australia, mandates that their time period must be at least 33 days but no more than 58 days. Silly first-world democracies! 78 days, yeah right!?! More like 78 debates. 58 days doesn’t even put us through our first trimester of the presidential season. And that begs the question, does that make it too early to determine gender via Ultrasound but too late to abort?
Our first candidate formally declared back when Kris Humphries was Kris Kardashian. That candidate was Jack Fellure, formerly of the Prohibition Party, who declared his 2016 Republican candidacy on November 7, 2012. One day removed from the 2012 General Election featuring Obama v. Romney. Making Fellure’s 2016 candidacy nearly as long as Prohibition lasted in the United States.
Our first real candidates, sorry Fellure, declared this past spring. Ted Cruz declared in late March, Hillary Clinton in early April, and Marco Rubio later that month. That means, we are just past the six month mark of a legitimate 18-month campaign for the Presidency. And you thought baseball season was never ending. (On a side note to Major League Baseball, the term “playing for October” should be banned from all telecasts as your regular season now extends into October. This means each and every team is actively playing in October – except for the Colorado Rockies who threw in the towel way back in May.)
At the one-year away mark, the Presidential race is nothing if not entertaining. Young liberals are flocking to Bernie Sanders as if he were on the Coachella lineup. Martin O’Malley has secured the “hot dad” vote, which Jon Hamm will tell you, is career changing. CNBC recently gave into Donald Trump’s and Ben Carson’s debate demands, which won’t inflate their oversized egos. Mike Huckabee continues to hang around the race, always ready to offer the most insensitive and unintelligible comments like your drunken uncle at a Thanksgiving party. And the establishment likes the establishment candidates, which no surprise, are a Bush and a Clinton.
As we enter the one year mark away from the 2016 General Election, the following are my predictions of who makes the ticket for each party.
Democrat Nomination for President: Hillary Clinton.
There is no stopping Hillary. People forget that in 2008, Hillary fought well into June against Obama for the Democrat nomination. She actually received more of the popular vote than Obama did in the lead-up to the 2008 nomination. Luckily, we have this ridiculous primary system, where candidates actively and aggressively campaign in states with populations less than San Diego County, while other larger states, such as California, receive little to no attention outside of fundraising dinners. But I digress.
Hillary’s campaign is well-coordinated and well-funded. She is a superb debater, her message resonates and she honestly lacks a true rival in the party. Despite Bernie’s surging popularity, Hillary still polls more than 20 percentage points above Sanders. The nomination is hers to lose. And she won’t do that again.
Democrat Vice-President Nomination: Julian Castro
Castro is a budding star in the party. He is the current Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Obama Cabinet, the former mayor of San Antonio and a former keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention in 2012. Castro got his bachelor’s degree at Stanford and his JD from Harvard Law School. He will beat out other establishment choices and any of the other individuals running for the nomination. He’s gonna be a big deal in national politics.
Republican Nomination for President: Jeb Bush
Once the smoke clears from the rest of the Republican carnival, Jeb will emerge. Bush is a sensible, if not dull, alternative in the eye of the hysteria hurricane that is the battle for the nomination. He has a large national organization and the backing of his name. He can roll out two former President’s to stump for him and his name does still carry some prestige. He has an impressive list of donors. And he’s the establishment candidate – which usually equals the nomination.
The larger narrative of the Republican primary has been the desire for an outsider candidate. Currently the top two polling candidates, Donald Trump and Ben Carson, are both outsiders who have captured this sentiment. I think many of the candidates in the race provide nothing but noise and seek to do nothing more than stoke the flames of discontent. There is substance to this fervor. Congress is regularly breaking their own records for lowest approval ratings. People are tired of the same Washington machine. However, Washington doesn’t change overnight.
Republican Vice-President Nomination: Marco Rubio
With the sentiment boiling, the Vice-President nomination will go to someone deemed to be enough of a Washington outsider. Rubio can play enough of a Tea Party darling to soothe those in the party who don’t like Bush. I think the party will seriously consider Ted Cruz as well, but ultimately Cruz is too polarizing, and Rubio can make up for some of Bush’s shortcomings.
I may be wrong in the end. Maybe it will be Bernie Sanders versus Donald Trump. Or better yet, Jack Fellure versus Jimmy McMillan of the Rent is Too Damn High Party. That would make for a captivating race. I just wouldn’t bet on Washington changing from the establishment in 2016, or ever.